Monthly Archives: December 2010

The Tax Compromise — A Breakdown

Posted by Jim on December 17, 2010
Economics, Taxes / No Comments

Many of you have talked about the recently passed tax compromise. Some of my liberal friends hated it, as did some of my conservative friends. Others supported it.

I figured now that it’s gone to the President for his signature, I’d break down in graphical form, the budgetary effects of the bill. The Atlanta Journal Constitution did a good job of putting things in layman’s terms, I linked to that earlier. JCT’s technical explanation is here, and estimated budget effects are located here.

A quick, and I do mean quick, primer.

  • Not each of the blue lines in the charts are the same.
  • Some represent foregone revenue, meaning rates were scheduled to go up to X from Y, and that line represents the amount of revenue we “lose” by keeping taxes at Y, not X.
  • Some represent spending, in the form actual direct spending (like unemployment insurance) while others represent tax credits that let people keep more of their own money, or in the case of some refundable tax credits — other peoples’ money.

(Click to expand)

You can print a poster of the big chart, by downloading my  Budget Impact Poster.

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We Don’t Make Anything Anymore!

Posted by Jim on December 16, 2010
Economics, Trade / 3 Comments

Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion, man.

Continue reading…

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Social Media Year in Review

Posted by Jim on December 15, 2010
Friends / No Comments

Friend of the blog Bobby Metzinger recently posted a year in review for social media. Enjoy.

From the Old Spice ads to Mark Zuckerberg being named TIME’s Person of the Year, it’s been anything but quiet on the social media front in 2010. More than any year prior, the world is now realizing that social media isn’t just a party crasher – it is here to stay.

It was the year of “Mother Knows Best.” A recent studycommissioned by Child’s Play Communications from The NPD Group Inc. found that 79 percent of moms with children under 18 are active in social media. Breaking it down further, 55 percent of moms said they purchased a product because of a personal review or blog post while 40 percent said they did so because of a Facebook recommendation. Just imagine if June Cleaver or Clair Huxtable had an iPad!

2010 might also be known as “The Year of the Check-In,” as the social space has moved from “What Are You Doing?” and “What’s Happening?” to “Where Are You?” As mobility and user accessibility meshed into social networking, businesses began to capitalize on the check-in craze. Near a Starbucks and craving a latte? Well, there’s a good chance that when you check-in with Twitter, Gowalla or Facebook Places, your craving might be quenched – at a discount!

And now we pause to remember those we lost during 2010:
1. Leslie Nielsen
2. Google Wave
3. Google Buzz

If 2010 is the year of the Tiger in the Chinese Zodiac, we in the social media world just call it the Year of Facebook. Did we go anywhere or do anything without Facebook playing a role? Think about it. We can let our friends know that we’ll be at the movies while we’re in line for tickets to “The Social Network.” That’s like getting a fresh hot dog at the butcher. Not only was the movie a smash box office hit, it’s getting serious Oscar heat. But then again, it’s not exactly “Stealing Harvard,” either. While somewhat dark and disturbing and with Hollywood taking some obvious liberties, the movie revealed the true psyche of social media. That, and if you surround yourself with the right people while you’re a Harvard undergrad, you’ll eventually be named TIME’s Person of the Year.

Speaking of Mark Zuckerberg, the guy is everywhere. At 26, he’s the Rockefeller of social media. Quick, name the CEO of Twitter. I’m sorry, time’s up. From interviews with Oprah and 60 Minutes to being lampooned on Saturday Night Live by Andy Samberg, the Doogie Howser,M.D. of the CEO World solidified his presence ten-fold in ‘10. And while he may not be the most P.R.-savvy leader (his $100 million donation to the Newark school system in light of “The Social Network” reviews raised eyebrows), it really doesn’t matter when you can dive into a pool of money like Scrooge McDuck.

In a year that gave birth to the iPad and the tablet arms race, iPhone 4 and the rise of the Android, it was social media picking up steam like an avalanche and dominating the headlines. This cross-cultural obsession is changing the way we absorb news, weather, stock information and sports. Traditional media is doing all they can to ride the coattails of social media; even our own Dallas-based FOX affiliate spoofed social media — to the tune of almost 300,000 unique views. Why watch a high-speed police chase when you can fly the helicopter?

Thanks, 2010. It’s been real. Now if you’ll excuse me, I think I see a Double Rainbow.

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We’ll Miss you John

Posted by Jim on December 14, 2010
Saint Louis / No Comments

Sadly, I was informed that a Humphrey’s regular, John Seay, passed away suddenly. Rest in peace, John.

From SLU’s website:

John Seay, 1956-2010


ST. LOUIS — John Seay, executive director of SLUCare’s Practice Management Operations, died unexpectedly on Sunday, Dec.12. He was 54.

Seay served on the SLUCare administrative team since 2001. He was responsible for the revenue cycle of the University Medical Group and was instrumental in laying the groundwork for SLUCare’s electronic health record project.

He had been part of the Saint Louis University family earlier, as associate director of Physician Billing Services at Saint Louis University Hospital from 1990 to 1992.

“John was a hard and diligent worker who brought out the best in his employees by encouraging them to take initiative in accomplishing their job,” said Kathleen Becker, SLUCare’s chief executive officer.

“He will be greatly missed by his colleagues. His family and friends are in our thoughts and prayers.”

Debi Pratt, manager of PMO administration, had worked with Seay as his assistant for 20 years.

“John was a really quiet person who was committed to other people. He did things with purpose and never wanted the light shining on him. He was really proud of our department of 150 staff members and cared about each and every staff member,” Pratt said.

She added that Seay empowered his colleagues to make decisions.

“He was one of the main reasons why our department is what it is today. He held everyone accountable and wasn’t a micromanager. He hired people who he knew could get the job done and let them do their job.”

Mike Meyer, associate dean for finance and administration at the School of Medicine, said Seay was a huge college sports fan and dedicated employee. He set high expectations and gave people the resources to accomplish the job, Meyer said.

“John was very kind. If someone needed a favor, John would do all he could for them. He was also very generous with the organizations that he felt strongly about,” Meyer said. “He was a good, good man.”

Seay is survived by his parents Wesley and Wynema Seay of Mexico, Mo., and three brothers and a

The United States of Walmart

Posted by Jim on December 13, 2010
Economics, Trade / 1 Comment

I have gotten a bunch of emails from time to time, challenging me (and about 100 other people) to see where the products we buy are made. As an ardent free trader, I usually click “mark as read” since where my products are made is of very little importance to me.

One email starts like this:

Check this out . I can verify this because I was in Lowes the other day
for some reason and just for the heck of it I was looking at the hose
attachments . They were all made in China . The next day I was in Ace
Hardware and just for the heck of it I checked the hose attachments there.

It goes on, but I’ll spare you. You know where the email goes. So tonight I was at Walmart, and had to buy some goods, and for some strange reason, this email came to mind — because, the internets told me that we don’t make anything here anymore…. So I did some homework and made a little quiz. I’ll post the results later with some interesting data, but take the quiz for now. Click “Read More” to take the quiz.

(Once you hit submit, scroll back up to the top for the answers.)

Continue reading…

Too Many Deal Sites

Posted by Jim on December 13, 2010
Friends / 1 Comment

One of my co-workers sent me a link to a new Groupon-esque/Living Social site called “Bloomspot.” Frankly, I think there are too many of these websites and I do not trust the new ones. Why am I going to give my credit card info to them, or pay them through paypal? Anybody can set up a nice website and give you customized pdfs. A robot can do that. I can do that (see below.)

I don’t think these new sites will stay up forever, and frankly, I’ll just stick with GroupOn and Living Social. I don’t want to get scammed.

Moscow

Posted by Jim on December 13, 2010
Friends / No Comments

One of my fellow fellows from the Partnership for a Secure America, Kelvin Stroud, is currently participating in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Moscow Global Policy Fellowship. He has set up a blog to detail his experiences, check it out!

http://moskelvin.blogspot.com/

Karma is a bitch

Posted by Jim on December 13, 2010
Missouri, Saint Louis, St. Louis / 1 Comment

Excuse my language, but I have the biggest shit-eating grin on my face right now. Remember the Save Humphrey’s campaign?

Of course I do, because I helped run it. Some developer was trying to push Humphrey’s out of business to get their land. Bottom line, they lost, Jan won. Humphrey’s is still going strong and will celebrate its 35th Anniversary this coming year.

What ever happened to that development? Oh, nothing big, EXCEPT FILING FOR BANKRUPTCY.

Suck on it, developers. Sorry to the students who were screwed over, but karma’s a chameleon, it comes and goes, it comes and goes, oh woah a woah!

I still have a few shirts from the campaign. Maybe I should send one to Rick Yackey. Screwing taxpayers, students, and trying to screw Humphrey’s. These folks are no friend of mine.

Keady’s wrong. A better solution.

Posted by Jim on December 13, 2010
Economics, Letters to the Editor, Saint Louis, Trade / 1 Comment

Below is a letter to the editor of the University News.

To the Editor:

I saw that our school recently brought social justice activist Jim Keady to SLU to speak about foreign laborers making the products we choose to buy. Specifically, Mr. Keady has chosen Nike corporation as his target, since his refusal to wear their products cost him his job as a soccer coach. While I admire his principle, his methods are madness and are doomed to fail.

While his group hasn’t called for a Boycott of Nike products just yet, Mr. Keady believes, as he articulates in a YouTube video, that a boycott of Nike wouldn’t hurt the workers he’s sworn to protect. I disagree.

Frankly, he might get a minor victory here and there, but at the end of the day, I doubt his efforts will have any effect on Nike’s balance sheets any more than a rounding error would. Nike’s mission is to deliver a return on investment for people who chose to invest in that company, not to accede to Mr. Keady’s worldview of social justice.

So, I challenge students inspired by Mr. Keady to boycott Nike’s “sweatshop-made” products. By boycotting the specific products Nike sources in the countries Mr. Keady mentions, workers would be worse off. If successful (unlikely), a large enough boycott could force Nike to close those factories down and move them elsewhere, leaving the workers jobless and worse-off. Some point to make. Obviously, the workers are better off than if Nike wasn’t there in the first place.

Where do you go from here? How can their lives be improved?

Mr. Keady’s efforts to unionize the labor force and have those workers demand higher wages than what the market in those countries will bear, will likely have a similar effect. Those workers probably lose their jobs. Don’t believe me? You can try this at home! Round up your co-workers. Tell your boss you’ve formed a union and that you’re asking for a collective 200% raise. See what happens.

Better yet, ask some of GM’s laid-off employees how well their plans for higher wages and a strong union worked out for them. Many of them got fired, plants were closed and moved to other places (ask Michael Moore about Flint), and the company eventually went bankrupt. More people were fired, more plants were closed, and after the bankruptcy re-organization the newly hired employees work next to older workers making about twice their salary for the same position.

While I don’t like unions, they only tend to work when the company tells them “no” more often than “yes.”

Unions and employers are often competing forces, and when the demands of one side are too unreasonable to the other, things don’t typically end well. Mr. Keady should be well aware of this, given his decision to resign, rather than wear Nike clothing. His decision not to accept their offer is not too different than the situation he came to SLU to speak about. If the workers demand too much, they lose their jobs, and others will take their place, either in the current factory, or elsewhere. If the employer offers too little, and employees quit, others will take their jobs, either in the current factory, or elsewhere.

I’m not writing to criticize Mr. Keady’s goals, because he believes strongly in them, and their goal of eradicating poverty is noble. I mean, who doesn’t want a 200% raise for the same day’s work? But, I am afraid that, if pursued, his plan of action will fail miserably, and the workers he cares so much about will be worse off.

A better plan, in my opinion, would be to encourage Nike’s competitors to source their products directly across the street. And it’s not something that hard to accomplish. They can offer more money to workers than Nike does, and still be profitable. Of course, they won’t do this in an effort to be charitable, because they will benefit from the costs Nike spent training those employees. Without having to spend the same amount of money to train those employees, they can pay more in salary, and still remain profitable since their training costs will be lower. To retain their labor force, Nike will have to raise its level of pay or stand to lose skilled employees to a competitor.

A few centuries ago, a young country across the ocean had somewhat similar working conditions, and poverty was widespread. That country was the United States of America. Sure, there were unions, but competition is what really raised wages, since most unions have similar demands. Fast forward to today in St. Louis, where you have unions actually picketing each other. Can you imagine that happening in Indonesia?

Through competition (along with advances in technology and capital investments), not unionization and pity campaigns, economies evolve, and people are lifted out of poverty. To try and get Nike to pay more absent robust competition is an utter waste of time and scarce resources.

Jim Swift
Alexandria, Virginia
John Cook School of Business, 2006

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Boehner on 60 Minutes

Posted by Jim on December 13, 2010
Politics / No Comments

As a bonus, there is a bit of crying, which is to be expected. All in all, a nice background on Boehner.